WASHINGTON – (WMAL) A new poll out today suggests it will not merely be a blue wave, but a blue tsunami coming to Virginia for this year’s midterm elections.
The Christopher Newport University Poll shows an especially large blowback to President Trump in the state.
“52 percent of respondents here said that they have a very unfavorable opinion of him here, and that’s just something that is not typical,” CNU political scientist Rachel Bitecofer told WMAL. “Voters tend to go with ‘I’m somewhat unhappy or I somewhat disapprove,’ so so many voters saying ‘very’ really indicates there’s a lot of passion and backlash.”
On a generic ballot, in which pollsters asked if respondents were more likely to vote for the Democrat or the Republican, the poll found Democrats had a 12-point advantage. Among those that said they were enthusiastic about voting, the number jumped to a 20-point difference favoring Democrats.
“We definitely see a large looming midterm effect that is going to disadvantage Republican candidates across the state,” Bitecofer said.
The poll predicts at least four competitive Congressional races in Virginia, including the Tenth District, currently held by Republican Barbara Comstock.
CNU’s issue-based polling also shows strong preferences toward Democrat-supported positions rejecting offshore drilling and finding a solution on DACA. 71 percent of respondents want DACA recipients to have legal status.
“You don’t get to 71 without picking up the Democrats and Independents, but some Republicans,” Bitecofer said.
The poll did find support evenly split along party lines for the recently passed tax bill.
Overall, Bitecofer said the poll numbers belie Virginia’s continuing status as a battleground state.
“The demographics of Virginia still do create a competitive electoral environment between the parties,” she said. “But what is making it seem like a solid blue state right now is that passion and backlash to President Trump.”
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