Des Moines, Iowa (CNN) — With nearly 20 contenders vying for their attention, Iowa Republicans are finding themselves in an unusual predicament this year: overwhelmed by their choices.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s consistent lead in public polls might suggest that the Hawkeye State is his to lose, particularly after he opened a 7-point advantage over his closest rivals in The Des Moines Register poll released Saturday. But interviews with GOP voters and operatives here tell a different story: a wide open race with ample room for a second-tier candidate such as Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina or Rick Perry to vault to the top.
Sherry Erb, who owns a mom-and-pop printing shop with her husband, summed up the conundrum expressed by many GOP voters here as she strolled through a Des Moines farmers market on Saturday.
“To tell you the truth, every time I hear one interviewed, I think ‘Wow, that’s the guy,” said Erb, 64. “And then I hear a different one interviewed” — she said, widening her eyes and drawing in a gulp of air for effect — “and I think: ‘My goodness, he would be great!’ ”
“I love all of them. I don’t know how I’m going to narrow it down,” said Erb, who lives on a family farm near Boone, not far from where the GOP contenders will mingle with voters this Saturday at pork roast hosted by Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst.
There are more serious candidates competing for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination than any election cycle in recent memory, leading many Iowa observers to say this is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable races they can remember.
Next February’s caucuses here will kick off the primary season and, as the first formidable hurdle for the candidates, could winnow the field. The race will test each GOP politician’s ability to organize supporters and appeal to evangelicals, a key element of the party here and in South Carolina, another critical primary state. In years past, the caucuses served as a proving ground for expected front-runners such as George W. Bush along with upstarts such as Barack Obama, whose Iowa win established his credibility as a serious challenger to Hillary Clinton in 2008.
Even candidates who claimed to mount only a limited campaign effort in Iowa, such as Mitt Romney in 2012, have benefited from a rush of momentum coming out of the state when they exceeded expectations heading into the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire.
To gauge the volatility of the race and Iowans’ potential to surprise, one needs to look no further than the wild swings of the GOP race here in 2011. At this point in the cycle, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum was rounding out the bottom of the pack, notching a mere 4% in The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll with his shoestring campaign.
But by wooing voters one-by-one across the state’s 99 counties — traveling mainly in a pickup — Santorum edged Romney in the caucuses, giving him momentum to continue. (Santorum is back in the single digits in the most recent Register poll).
“It’s all about expectations here — no candidate wants to underperform on caucus night,” said veteran Iowa GOP operative Tim Albrecht. “Right now candidates and potential candidates are quietly organizing behind the scenes, going precinct by precinct, finding where their support resides. They are culling through names of activists, through voter rolls, through past caucus attendees to find supporters and volunteers.”
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Because of that, he cautioned that the current polls “don’t have a lot of meaning. Anyone can surprise on caucus night.”
The leanings of GOP voters may be even harder to predict this year because of the diminished importance of the August Straw Poll, once viewed as the key test of each campaign’s organization.
The longstanding event, which serves mainly as a fundraiser for the Republican Party of Iowa, might not happen this year, particularly if Walker — who has not yet declared his intentions — skips the nonbinding contest.
Two major presidential hopefuls, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, have already opted out of what has become widely viewed as an exorbitant expense for campaigns that has carried little long-term benefit for its recent winners.
And because Iowans pride themselves on giving all of the candidates a fresh look each cycle, even past winners of the Iowa Caucus such as Santorum and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee may not have much of an edge.
Ann Trimble-Ray, who lives in northwest Iowa and is active in conservative cirlces, described the race as completely unpredictable and said the current stealth player to watch is Perry, the former Texas governor whose 2012 campaign collapsed after a series of stumbles. Heading into 2016, he’s reaching out to potential organizers, setting up one-on-one meetings with activists and building a strong team.
“He is running a vastly different campaign than he did four years ago; he has people representing him at events across the state so people can connect a name, and face and voice with Gov. Perry,” said Trimble-Ray, who is not aligned with any campaign. “He himself has been accessible, and he has been a different candidate this time.”
Fiorina’s sharp jabs at Hillary Clinton have also gained notice in Iowa, demonstrating how a lesser known candidate can quickly draw the spotlight with well-honed sound bites.
“It’s been very well played by Ms. Fiorina,” said Trimble-Ray, who praised the former Hewlett-Packard chief executive for boldly outlining her case against Clinton. “It’s not just a whisper campaign, nor a backroom suggestion that we need to have someone who would be par-to-par with Hillary Clinton. When Carly says I can throw the jabs without the backlash, I believe she’s right.”
But in interviews here, a number of GOP voters bluntly said that they weren’t ready for a female president. Others said they liked the energy that Fiorina brought to the race, but worried that the controversy over her departure at Hewlett-Packard could become a liability.
“She got a pretty good parachute package when she left there,” said Tim Fellers, a retired sales executive from Waukee, referring to Fiorina’s nearly $42 million compensation package when the board of directors asked her to step down. “When I got let go of jobs, that didn’t happen.”
Fellers, a Republican who is most intrigued by retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, added that there are “good choices among the 20 of them.”
“There’s just way too many,” said his wife, Sheryl Fellers.
Finding the most viable candidate to take on Clinton is already a top preoccupation for Republican voters here. As she walked into a nail salon in Clive last week, 102-year-old Republican June E. Cornelius expressed impatience with candidates who are running for a second or a third time. She favors Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.
“These are all old men. I think we need young blood,” Cornelius said. “Everybody is running but me.”
Others quickly name Bush as the only candidate who could match Clinton’s formidable fundraising effort, and that may be one reason why he has risen in the polls here — finding himself in a four-way tie for second place in the recent Des Moines Register poll.
But the hangover from George W. Bush’s presidency still looms large among Republicans here. Peter Woltz, who owns Timber Ridge Cattle Company in Osceola, said he planned to watch carefully to see whether Jeb Bush shares what he views as the “autonomous” style of his brother.
When Iraq invaded Kuwait in the 1990s, “I thought his father did the right thing, he went in and resolved that situation and then pulled out,” Woltz said. George W. Bush, he said, “really overextended his authority and really railroaded the [Iraq] invasion through without going through the proper channels.”
After that experience, Woltz said he was far more interested in a candidate such as Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who has emphasized the limits of government.
For now, as more candidates jump into the race, the expanding field has provided an entertaining spectacle for voters such as Sherry and Steve Erb of Boone County.
They are looking ahead to Perry’s official announcement in Texas this week — willing to give him a second look despite his poor showing and infamous ‘Oops’ moment when he forgot one of the three agencies of government that he would eliminate in a 2012 debate.
“He’s got guts, we know that, and we need guts,” Sherry Erb said.
Her husband is more interested in the potential entry of Donald Trump, and how a “nonpolitician” could shake up what he views as a “stagnant” economy.
“It’s crazy, the size of government. … He’d fire people,” Steve Erb, said, eliciting a chuckle from his wife as he imitated Trump’s lines from “The Apprentice.”
“Boy we need that happening,” his wife added, “my word.”
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