A Bloodless Coup In Zimbabwe?

HARARE, ZIMBABWE — It has all the markings of a coup: a solemn soldier addressing the nation on state television in a beret and fatigues, armored vehicles in the capital and jittery, puzzled citizens.

After a chaotic night of gunfire and uncertainty in Zimbabwe, a soldier announced Wednesday that President Robert Mugabe is safe.

But he warned that this is no military coup, just a crackdown on “criminals.”

“To both our people and the world beyond our borders, we wish to make this abundantly clear this is not a military takeover of government,” Maj. Gen. S.B. Moyo said on state television.

But Alex T. Magaisa, a lecturer at University of Kent in the UK, said it certainly looked like a coup.

“You call a frog by any other name, but it will still be a frog,” he said. “They are being very careful in their words, they can’t call this what it is because it wouldn’t be accepted in the region.”

[van id=”world/2017/11/15/zimbabwe-military-statement-sevenzo-lklv.cnn”]

Zimbabwean officials have jostled for power for years, but it escalated with the firing of the vice president last week, setting off a series of actions leading to Wednesday.

Here’s a quick refresher on how it all unfolded:

How did Zimbabwe get here?

For years, the ruling party has been embroiled in a bitter succession battle that has at times spilled out into the open.

Zimbabwean media have reported on increasingly open animosity between Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa and first lady Grace Mugabe — both of whom were considered leading candidates to replace the President.

Despite the history of infighting, Mugabe’s firing of Mnangagwa last week so close to next year’s elections stunned the nation. He has been a key strategist for Mugabe in past elections, says David Coltart, a former Cabinet minister.

After decades of cutting ties with allies, Mugabe may have taken a step too far this time.

“Mugabe, for all his faults, has shown amazing political acumen over the years,” Coltart says. “But this is a foolish move.”

At age 93, it’s unclear if one of the world’s longest serving leaders is still in control of the country he’s ruled for almost four decades.

Complicating things even further, Mnangagwa has a strong following in the military, and his firing led to a warning from the armed forces’ Gen. Constantino Chiwenga, who said the military will intervene if political allies continue to be sidelined.

State media did not cover Chiwenga’s news conference when it happened last week, but re-aired it on state media Wednesday, a sign that the military may have taken control of the station.

Where is the President?

Mugabe had not issued a statement Wednesday and his whereabouts remain unknown.

Moyo sought to reassure the nation, saying Mugabe and his family “are safe and sound and their security is guaranteed.”

“We are only targeting criminals around him who are committing crimes that are causing social and economic suffering in the country in order to bring them to justice,” he said.

What is his wife’s role in the political crisis ?

The President’s wife, Grace Mugabe, is a key player in the unfolding political crisis.

In the past, the 52-year-old first lady mostly made headlines for her extravagant shopping sprees, which earned her the nickname “Gucci Grace.” But in recent years, she’s grown especially vocal, leaving tongues wagging that her husband is grooming her to succeed him.

The first lady became head of the ruling party’s women’s league a few years ago, prompting even more speculation that she’ll be her husband’s successor. The firing of the vice president, analysts say, moves her closer to her goal.

Mugabe’s second wife has developed a reputation as a shrewd, if sometimes extravagant, politician, and has steadily gained influence among youth in Zimbabwe.

But she’s also made headlines for the wrong reasons, including the alleged assault of a South African model in Johannesburg this year. Mugabe denied the charges, but was granted diplomatic immunity before she could make a court appearance.

Why was the vice president fired?

Mugabe’s firing of Mnangagwa, his right-hand man for nearly four decades, stunned the nation.

In a statement issued by the government spokesman, Mugabe accused the vice president of “disloyalty, disrespect, deceitfulness and unreliability.”

Mnangagwa, nicknamed crocodile because of his political longevity, was with Mugabe from the start, serving as his assistant during the liberation struggle, later as his intelligence chief and cabinet minister.