By Stephen Dinan – The Washington Times – Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Former President Donald Trump rewrote the campaign playbook in defeating Vice President Kamala Harris by carving into traditional Democratic voting blocs, including Hispanics and younger voters, hinting at a lasting political realignment.
He grabbed 41% to 45% of the Hispanic vote, flirting with a record for a Republican nominee, and seemed to improve among Black voters in crucial swing states. Mr. Trump narrowed Democrats’ lead among women as Ms. Harris sought to become the first female president.
He solidified Republican margins in Florida and Texas, flipped Sunbelt and Rust Belt states he needed to secure the Electoral College win, and cut into Democrats’ leads in their traditional strongholds.
In New York, which President Biden won by 23 percentage points in 2020, Mr. Trump trailed Ms. Harris by about a dozen points as of Wednesday afternoon. In New Jersey, which went for Mr. Biden by about 16 points four years ago, Mr. Trump was only 5 points behind Ms. Harris.
Mr. Trump was also leading in the popular vote, with millions of ballots still to be counted, many in deep-blue California. It is not clear whether he will emerge on top of that tally.
The once and future president praised in his victory speech what he saw as a “historic realignment.”
“We’ve built the biggest, the broadest, the most unified coalition,” he said.
Whether that coalition outlasts him remains to be seen, but Mr. Trump has been pushing the Republican Party into new territory for the past decade and has urged blue-collar and younger voters to give him another look.
Tuesday’s results bore that out.
“He knows the worker. He feels comfortable with the carpenter, the plumber, the mason. He can go anywhere and talk to anyone about everyday issues,” said Emilio Gonzalez, who ran the legal immigration agency for President George W. Bush and last week predicted Mr. Trump’s results. “That’s something the cultural elites here don’t understand. They don’t understand that kind of connection he’s built.”
Sen. Bernard Sanders, a Vermont independent who twice ran for the Democratic presidential nomination, said the shift involves policy.
“It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working-class people would find that the working class has abandoned them,” he said.
Mr. Trump reversed the gender gap by garnering more support among men than Ms. Harris received among women. Ms. Harris’ 53% of the female vote was the lowest for a Democrat since John Kerry in 2004.
Mr. Trump also improved with voters younger than 30. He cut Democrats’ advantage by 5 points from 2020 and gained among voters 45 and older. According to CNN’s exit polling, he held steady among voters ages 30-44, roughly the Millennial generation.
The Fox News/AP survey showed Mr. Trump with a 10-point gain among voters younger than 30 and gains among Millennials while holding firm on those older than 45.
The shift among Hispanics is likely to draw intense scrutiny.
For most of this century, Republicans have argued that they can win the White House with at least 40% of the Hispanic vote.
One exit poll conducted for CNN, ABC, NBC and CBS showed 45% of Hispanic voters backed Mr. Trump. The other major election poll, conducted for The Associated Press and Fox News, showed that Mr. Trump had 41% support among Hispanics.
That is arguably the best showing ever for a Republican candidate.
The previous modern high was President George W. Bush, who received about 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004.
Analysts have debated the exact figure from 20 years ago. The major exit poll at the time showed 44%, but academics said the methodology oversampled Republican-friendly Cuban voters.
According to CNN’s exit polls, Mr. Trump drew just 28% support from Hispanics in his 2016 run and 32% in 2020.
Alfredo Ortiz, CEO of the Job Creators Network, said Hispanic voters powered Republican wins across the map Tuesday.
“Republicans’ stands on illegal immigration, the economy, small business, public safety, and defending faith resonated with Hispanic voters across America,” he said.
Mr. Trump won almost every border county in Texas and flipped heavily Hispanic regions in the state’s southern tip.
UnidosUS, a civil rights and advocacy group, said Hispanic voters went for Ms. Harris in Pennsylvania while Mr. Trump led in Florida.
UnidosUS was part of a group of left-leaning organizations that sponsored their own election poll, including more than 3,600 Hispanic voters.
“The poll also revealed that Latino voters were driven to the polls by their concerns over pocketbook issues, including the cost of living, jobs and the economy, housing affordability and health care costs,” UnidosUS said.
Left off that list was immigration. Left-wing advocates warned that Mr. Trump’s stance on strict enforcement might cost him support.
Mr. Trump, though, said the border chaos hit Hispanic communities particularly hard.
The CNN exit poll showed that Hispanics represent 12% of the electorate, down 1 point from 2020. Black voters’ support fell from 13% to 11%. The share of White voters, meanwhile, went from 67% to 71%.
The Fox/AP election outcome survey put White voters at 75%, up slightly from 2020.
That survey showed that Mr. Trump nearly doubled his support among Black voters, reaching 15%. The CNN consortium’s polling showed him at 12% among Black voters, or about even with his 2020 showing.
• Stephen Dinan can be reached at sdinan@washingtontimes.com.
