By Bill Gertz – The Washington Times – Wednesday, December 18, 2024
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has added hundreds of new missiles and 100 more nuclear warheads as part of a military buildup designed for a future war with the United States, according to a Pentagon report made public Wednesday.
The latest survey of Chinese military power also for the first time reveals extensive PLA preparations for sophisticated information warfare operations against the United States, including the use of “deep fake” online posts and cyber-enabled psychological warfare. The goal is to target U.S. military leaders’ decision making in a regional conflict and to demoralize troops and sow divisions in U.S. society, Pentagon analysts said.
The latest report provides new details on extensive PLA advances in weapons systems, doctrine and training. The efforts include practice missile strikes against U.S. aircraft carriers and warships during operations against Taiwan, the self-ruled island Beijing has vowed to annex as early as 2027.
“The PLA increasingly views warfare as a confrontation between opposing operational systems, rather than annihilation of opposing mechanized military forces,” the report said. “Following this logic, PLA writings refer to systems destruction warfare as the next way of war, transforming from mechanized warfare to an informatized and intelligentized style.”
On the information warfare front, the PLA calls its activities “cognitive domain operations” described in the report as “an asymmetric capability to deter U.S. or third-party entry into a future conflict, or as an offensive capability to shape perceptions or polarize a society,” the report said.
The operations target the U.S. government and military, media organizations, businesses, academic and cultural institutions and policy communities.
The report notes that the PLA Rocket Force in recent months has rapidly expanded the number of missiles in its arsenal. A total 50 new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) have been added, along with 300 new medium-range ballistic missiles, and 100 new long-range ground-launched cruise missiles, just since the previous U.S. estimate in 2023.
It’s part of a long-term modernization program by Beijing to bolster strategic deterrence, and includes development of new ICBMs “that will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces and will require increased nuclear warhead production.”
Additionally, China is working on a conventionally-armed ICBM for precision-guided attacks against the United States, the report said.
The new missile, if deployed, “would enable [China] to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii, and Alaska,” the report said.
China’s military is improving missile systems with artificial intelligence systems that will make strikes more precise, the report said.
“The PRC’s military modernization efforts have rapidly transformed the PLA’s missile force,” the report concludes.
The rapid missile buildup has not been affected by what the Pentagon called “a new wave” of corruption investigations that led to the removal of at least 15 officers and several civilian defense officials, including the defense minister, Li Shangfu. The probe appears linked to programs modernizing ground-based nuclear and conventional missiles.
Two Rocket Force leaders, the commander and political commissar, were removed in July 2023 and may be linked to missile procurement fraud.
“The impact on PRC leaders’ confidence in the PLA after discovering corruption on this scale is probably elevated by the PLA [Rocket Force’s] uniquely important nuclear mission,” the report said.
However, repairs to missile silos made after the scandal likely increased the operational readiness of the silo-based missile forces, including the estimated 300 new multi-warhead missiles added in at three fields in western China, the report said.
Nuclear warhead expansion has also continued apace with the PLA now holding more than 600 warheads and expected to have 1,000 warheads by 2030. Several years ago, the warhead stockpile was less than 300.
Three milestones
A senior Pentagon official told reporters in advance of the release of the report that the PLA has three milestones for its military buildup: to be ready for military action against Taiwan by 2027; to support national objectives by 2035; and to field a world class military by 2049, the 100-year anniversary of the founding of the communist regime.
Despite the report outlining major military advances by Beijing, the official repeated the Biden administration’s position that war with China is not close or preordained.
“We don’t think conflict is imminent or inevitable,” the official said.
According to the report, the 3 million troops and naval, air and missile forces appear to be preparing for a conflict with the United States, possibly over Taiwan, or in the South China Sea. PLA “Joint Sword” exercises carried out around Taiwan in April included the first Chinese drills using an aircraft carrier to simulate attacks on Taiwan, the report said.
China’s military is also embracing cutting-edge technology as it builds up its strength, with the aim of deterring U.S. military forces in the Pacific from coming to the aid of allies or partners in the region.
“The PLA is pursuing next-generation combat capabilities based on its vision of future conflict, which it calls ’intelligentized warfare,’ defined by the expanded use of AI, quantum computing, big data and other advanced technologies at every level of warfare,” the report states.
Globally, the ruling Chinese Communist Party plans to use the PLA to promote its communist system through several initiatives. The goal, China’s leaders assert, is to replace the “unipolar” American-led international order both in Asia and around the world.
China’s navy is now the largest in the world with 370 warships, including large yearly deployments of new frigates and destroyers, along with smaller numbers of new nuclear and conventionally powered submarines. China is also engaged in large-scale production of J-20 jet fighters.
The missile forces include new Chinese hypersonic missiles that fly at extremely high speeds just below space and can maneuver to avoid U.S. missile defenses, the report said.
Three warfares
Separately, the PLA has created a military sub-unit called the Information Support Force that conducts what the PLA calls “three warfares:” public opinion warfare, psychological warfare and legal warfare.
Military cyber operations will be used for psychological manipulation. “Psychological warfare remains prominent in [Chinese Communist Party] thinking of the military’s evolving roles and responsibilities,” the report said.
The digital influence operations used in cognitive warfare seek to demoralize adversaries and influence domestic and foreign audiences and will involve both military and civilian elements. The effort even includes studying ways to directly affect the brains of adversaries.
This was disclosed in PLA research in 2016 into cognitive functions and neural pathways that included the use of brain-computer interfaces. The interfaces allow humans and computers to exchange information through devices implanted in the brain or placed on the skull.
“The PLA is exploring a range of ’neurocognitive warfare’ capabilities that exploit adversaries using neuroscience and psychology,” the report said.
The PLA says it needs cognitive warfare tools as needed to counter what it says is the American use of digital narratives to undermine the Chinese communist system, the report said. Cognitive warfare is viewed by the Chinese military as the next evolution in information warfare using modern internet technology and communication platforms, seeking to change enemy behavior and decision-making through the use of artificial intelligence, big data, brain science, and neuroscience.
“The goal of [cognitive domination operations] is to achieve what the PLA refers to as ’mind dominance,’ which the PLA defines as the use of information to influence public opinion to affect change in a nation’s social system, likely to create an environment favorable to the PRC and reduce civilian and military resistance to PLA actions,” the report said.
PLA cognitive warfare aims to impose psychological pressure and fear on the enemy and force a surrender without having to fire a shot on the battlefield.
Plans call for using deepfakes — such as synthetic media that imitates the voices of foreign senior political or military leaders to mislead adversaries and influence decisions.
PLA researchers are working on voice information synthesis technology for low-cost but high-impact military operations that will involve greater authenticity and less human input for deepfakes.
Chinese influence operations also seek to convince U.S. regional allies that Washington is untrustworthy, hegemonic and a violator of international law.
“Beijing likely uses official government statements, state-run media, and online disinformation to promote a narrative that Washington seeks to initiate a new Cold War by pressuring Indo-Pacific countries to ally with the United States and strategically encircle the PRC,” the report said.
A section of the report lists advanced weapons being developed by the PLA and states that new weapons will permit military attacks deeper into the region and worldwide, including space weapons, directed-energy guns, cyberattacks, long-range precision strike arms, advanced drones and electronic warfare systems.
