– The Washington Times
Virginia’s redistricting brawl, which will culminate in a special election Tuesday, remains a cliffhanger despite Democrats outspending Republicans by tens of millions of dollars in support of the referendum.
Polling and a tally of early and mail-in voting show a closely divided electorate when it comes to support for redrawing the state’s congressional lines in favor of Democrats.
Republican district turnout reached 565,062 votes as of Thursday, more than the 534,586 in Democratic-leaning districts.
Both parties have poured tens of millions of dollars into advertising before the special election, but Democrats have far outspent Republicans as they seek voter approval to carve out additional seats that could help their party win the U.S. House majority in the November midterm elections.
Analytics firm AdImpact said proponents, funded mostly by dark-money groups that aren’t required to disclose donors, spent $50.5 million on advertising in favor of redistricting.
Advertising against redistricting, some of it funded by dark-money groups, totaled $19.6 million.
AdImpact officials said the $70.1 million in ad spending makes the referendum the third-most-expensive nonpresidential contest in Virginia history.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for both parties.
If voters approve the proposed congressional map, they will wipe out four of the five Virginia congressional districts now held by Republicans and could help erase the Republicans’ two-seat majority in the House.
Virginia’s six Democratic-held districts and five Republican-held districts would be replaced with 10 congressional districts that lean Democratic and just one district likely to elect a Republican.
The proposed redistricting map can be enacted only if voters approve a constitutional amendment in the special election.
The midyear redistricting battle is an abrupt about-face from the bipartisan approach that created the Virginia Redistricting Commission. In an overwhelming bipartisan vote in 2019, the General Assembly passed a resolution to amend the Virginia Constitution, giving responsibility for congressional district mapmaking to a commission. Virginia voters approved the change in November 2020.
Previously, the General Assembly drew the district maps and approved them through the normal legislative process.
The ballot question seeks to allow the General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts “to restore fairness in the upcoming elections.” The amendment would return Virginia to the standard redistricting process every decade after the 2030 census.
Supporters of redistricting hope anti-Trump sentiment will drive voters to the polls in Democratic-heavy districts. The main group backing redistricting, Virginians for Fair Elections, raised about $64 million through April 10. The Republican group, Virginians for Fair Maps, raised $20 million. Most of the money came from outside the state.
The bulk of the pro-redistricting money, totaling more than $38 million, came from House Majority Forward, the issue advocacy arm of the House Democrats’ super PAC.
The money from Virginians for Fair Maps came mostly from individual donors. Among the big spenders was the Republican advocacy group American Potential, which donated $250,000.
Top Democrats and Republicans, among them House Speaker Mike Johnson, Louisiana Republican, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, New York Democrat, have been barnstorming Virginia to rally their respective voters.
The Democratic National Committee released an ad days before the special election featuring former President Barack Obama, who urged Democratic voters to get to the polls.
“By voting yes, you can push back against Republicans giving themselves an unfair advantage in the midterms,” Mr. Obama said.
Despite their major spending advantage, Democrats hold only a very narrow edge in the contest, according to a Quantum Insights poll released Thursday. It found that redistricting was supported by 51.2% and opposed by 46.9%. When voters were told “more explicitly” that the amendment would create 10 Democratic-leaning districts and one Republican district, support dropped to 49.6%, and opposition rose to 47.3%.
Virginia is part of a multistate redistricting brawl triggered last year when Texas Republicans, at the urging of President Trump, voted to redraw their state’s congressional map to give the Republicans five more House seats.
Republicans have netted a three-seat advantage in redistricting so far in California, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Utah, according to Ballotpedia, which is tallying the redistricting fight. Redistricting efforts in Georgia, New York and Louisiana remain subject to litigation and court decisions.
The fight to gain the upper hand in redistricting won’t end Tuesday.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has called the state Legislature into a special session beginning April 28. Mr. DeSantis will ask the Republican-led Florida House and Senate to consider measures, including a proposed map that redraws the state’s congressional districts to give Republicans additional House seats.
• Susan Ferrechio can be reached at sferrechio@washingtontimes.com.
