Party Sees Glimmer of Hope in U.S. Senate Race
Seth McLaughlin | June 14, 2025
(The Washington Times) — Democrats envision a perfect political storm sweeping across Texas next year that will propel them to victory in the U.S. Senate race and end their 30-year losing streak in statewide elections.
Political analysts say their dream could come true. A George Soros-backed group is shoveling money into the cause, and potential candidates are thumping their chests.
The Democrats’ optimistic outlook derives from President Trump’s absence on the ballot and a growing sense that four-term Sen. John Cornyn is in jeopardy of losing the Republican primary race to state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a more polarizing figure who has not run in a high-profile, competitive statewide race.
“Paxton has never had to face a race where he is in the title bout, he is on the marquee,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University. “He’s always been on the undercard.”
The Paxton factor has played into Republican concerns that, if the economy is in the doldrums and Mr. Trump’s approval rating has fallen, his nomination could give Democrats an opening to field a quality candidate, mobilize voters and pull off an upset.
That’s a lot of ifs, but it’s also the stuff of dreams.
Mr. Jones said Republicans, who hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, are in the driver’s seat and the Texas Republican Party is eager to do what it is accustomed to: dashing the dreams of Democrats.
“Republicans like the fact that Democrats hadn’t won a race statewide since 1994 as a demoralizing factor,” he said. “So what they don’t want to do is give Democrats hope by allowing them to win a statewide race, especially a high-profile race like the U.S. Senate race.”
More than 500 days before the midterm elections, Republicans are building on their success in November while Democrats look to 2018 for inspiration.
That was the year of “Beto-mania.”
In 2018, Rep. Beto O’Rourke emerged as a fresh face of the Democratic resistance in his race against Sen. Ted Cruz, the ambitious conservative firebrand loathed by Democrats and some Republicans.
Mr. O’Rourke tapped into the vast pool of anti-Trump sentiment to energize voters, particularly younger voters, and shattered fundraising records.
Yet, Mr. Cruz eked out a win by less than 3 percentage points.
Democrats saw a moral victory and a potential sign, buoyed by 10 flipped legislative seats in Austin and a pair of seats in the U.S. House. They came within 4 percentage points of ousting Mr. Paxton, who had served as the state’s top cop since 2015.
Mr. Trump took a sledgehammer to that optimism in November.
Mr. Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 points over Democrat Kamala Harris. Mr. Cruz was less successful but defeated his Democratic challenger, Rep. Colin Allred, by more than 8 percentage points.
Republicans also flipped three seats in the Texas Legislature.
Democrats are now taking solace in Mr. Trump’s absence on the ballot and lost faith among some voters in his ability to address their economic concerns.
A recent survey by Texas Southern University shows Mr. Trump’s support has tapered off since November.
Among the 86% of voters who said they supported Mr. Trump, 9% said they would vote for Ms. Harris if given another chance and 5% said they either would not vote, would cast their ballot for a third-party candidate or did not know.
All eyes are now on the plans of Mr. Allred, a former professional football player who served three terms in the U.S. House after flipping a Dallas-area seat in 2018.
Mr. Allred is openly considering another run, and most Democrats see him as the party’s strongest contender.
Mr. Allred said he would “run differently” this time and previewed his possible line of attack against Mr. Cornyn and Mr. Paxton.
“I’ve been looking at the Senate race because of my experience at the federal level,” Mr. Allred said on “Lone Star Politics,” a political television show produced by Dallas’ KXAS and The Dallas Morning News.
“I see somebody, Ken Paxton, who I think is historically corrupt and was impeached by a Republican legislature because of that,” he said. “And I see John Cornyn, who I don’t really recognize, as somebody who I think has lost any semblance of independence.”
The Republican field could continue to grow. Rep. Wesley Hunt is also considering a run.
Democrats’ focus on Texas underscores the 2024 Senate map’s challenge to the party.
Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia is the most vulnerable Democrat.
Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is defending seats in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire that are more vulnerable because of retirements. Their best pickup opportunities involve unseating Sens. Susan M. Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina.
Democrats in Texas are gearing up for the battle.
The Paxton campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
The Soros-backed Texas Majority PAC and the Texas Democrats recently announced a partnership on a “Blue Texas” campaign to recruit candidates and build the “largest Democratic voter mobilization program in Texas history.”
“With Trump back in the White House and Ken Paxton dragging down the GOP ticket, we have a massive opportunity to win in 2026,” said Katherine Fischer, director of Texas Majority PAC. “Our efforts this cycle are aimed at winning in the short term and making Texas a true battleground state in the long term.”
Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, said Democrats face an uphill battle but not an impossible goal, particularly if Mr. Cornyn loses in the primary.
“The reality is that Cornyn likely would be able to win reelection in Texas, barring some unforeseen circumstances,” Mr. Blank said. “Whether or not Ken Paxton could be as successful as Cornyn is really an open question.”
